2012年8月5日 星期日

Ed Easterling, 12 Rules of Market Cycles


Ed Easterling, 12 Rules of Market Cycles:
1. Secular cycles are driven by the inflation rate (deflation, price stability, and higher inflation)
2. Secular bulls occur when P/E starts low and ends high over an extended period
3. Secular bears occur when P/E starts high and ends low over an extended period
4. Cyclical bulls and bears are interim periods of directional swings within secular periods
5. Cyclical cycles are driven by market psychology, illiquidity, or other generally temporary condition(s)
6. Time is irrelevant to the length of secular stock market cycles
7. Secular bulls require a doubling or tripling of P/E
8. Secular bears occur as P/E stalls and falls by one-third to two-thirds or more
9. When real economic growth is near 3%, there is a natural floor for P/E between 5 and 10, a natural ceiling around the mid-20s, and a typical average in the mid-teens
10. If economic growth shifts upward or downward for the foreseeable future, the natural range moves upward or downward, respectively
11. Inflation drives P/Es location within the range; economic growth drives the level of the range
12. The stock market is not consistently predictable over months, quarters, or periods of a few years; the stock market is, however, quite predictable over periods approaching a decade or longer based upon starting P/E

1 則留言:

  1. These companies manufacture extremely intricate, advanced machines with quite a few components, all requiring exact measurements. CNC isn’t a very new expertise; it’s been round in some type or one other the explanation that} ‘50s. But the talents of CNC programming, and the number of machines would possibly be} CNC-equipped, has increased dramatically in recent years|in current times|lately}. G-code is the language of CNC tools; it tells the device where, Selling sweater for women when, and what to do. With CNC, a machine operator doesn’t truly device an element himself, but he or she does inform the machine what to do. North American companies should contemplate energy environment friendly CNC machines when sourcing new equipment.

    回覆刪除