Trading 七件事

1 Defining Objectives
2 Understanding Capacities and Resources
3 Modeling for Edge
4 Money Management framework for
5 Structuring routines for execution
6 Trade execution
7 Record and Evaluation

ATTITUDE SURVEY of Trading

1. To make money as a trader you have to know what the market is going to do next. Agree Disagree

2. Sometimes I find myself thinking that there must be a way to trade without having to take a loss. Agree Disagree

3. Making money as a trader is primarily a function of analysis. Agree Disagree

4. Losses are an unavoidable component of trading. Agree Disagree

5. My risk is always defined before I enter a trade. Agree Disagree

6. In my mind there is always a cost associated with finding out what the market may do next. Agree Disagree

7. I wouldn't even bother putting on the next trade if I wasn't sure that it was going to be a winner. Agree Disagree

8. The more a trader learns about the markets and how they behave, the easier it will be for him to execute his trades. Agree Disagree

9. My methodology tells me exactly under what market conditions to either enter or exit a trade. Agree Disagree

10. Even when I have a clear signal to reverse my position, I find it extremely difficult to do. Agree Disagree

11. I have sustained periods of consistent success usually followed by some fairly drastic draw-downs in my equity. Agree Disagree

12. When I first started trading I would describe my trading methodology as haphazard, meaning some success in between a lot of pain. Agree Disagree

13. I often find myself feeling that the markets are against me personally. Agree Disagree

14. As much as I might try to "let go," I find it very difficult to put past emotional wounds behind me. Agree Disagree

15. I have a money management philosophy that is founded in the principle of always taking some money out of the market when the market makes it available. Agree Disagree

16. A trader's job is to identify patterns in the markets' behavior that represent an opportunity and then to determine the risk of finding out if these patterns will play themselves out as they have in the past. Agree Disagree

17. Sometimes I just can't help feeling that I am a victim of the market. Agree Disagree

18. When I trade I usually try to stay focused in one time frame. Agree Disagree

19. Trading successfully requires a degree of mental flexibility far beyond the scope of most people. Agree Disagree

20. There are times when I can definitely feel the flow of the market; however, I often have difficulty acting on these feelings. Agree Disagree

21. There are many times when I am in a profitable trade and I know the move is basically over, but I still won't take my profits. Agree Disagree

22. No matter how much money I make in a trade, I am rarely ever satisfied and feel that I could have made more. Agree Disagree

23. When I put on a trade, I feel I have a positive attitude. I anticipate all of the money I could make from the trade in a positive way. Agree Disagree

24. The most important component in a trader's ability to accumulate money over time is having a belief in his own consistency. Agree Disagree

25. If you were granted a wish to be able to instantaneously acquire one trading skill, what skill would you choose?

26. I often spend sleepless nights worrying about the market. Agree Disagree

27. Do you ever feel compelled to make a trade because you are afraid that you might miss out? Yes No

28. Although it doesn't happen veiy often, I really like my trades to be perfect. When I make a perfect call it feels so good that it makes up for all of the times that I don't. Agree Disagree

29. Do you ever find yourself planning trades you never execute, and executing trades you never planned? Yes No

30. In a few sentences explain why most traders either don't make money or aren't able to keep what they make

零息時代的股票投資考慮

資產的投資性：

買入資產，必先考慮自己是屬於投資還是投機。不同的目標會影響決策。投資代表著長期持有資產以獲取回報。例如，持有一間買入價計有6%的股票，每年盈利增加5%，那三年後，便可獲取20%的回報。投資是以時間去換取資產回報率的方法。

資產的投機性：

隨著資本市場的周期變化，即使資產本身的回報率變化不大，資產價格都可以有極大的波動。如果買入資產的主要目的是在更高水平的位置賣出，這行為便帶有投機性，買賣頻率越高，投機性便越重。

股票的雙重特性：

像巴菲特買入股票，公司長菁地增長，這較像投資性質。買入價值折讓的股票，等待資本市場回暖，需要對資本市場有某種預期，較屬投機性。如果買入的股票能夠提供令人滿意的回報，同時享有投機性，則屬可取。如果買入回報低的資產，則投機性大則，最好用上投機的心態及方法。

零利率時代的投資考慮:

現在美國把利率長期壓在近0%水平，令全球的資產價格不斷提升。隨著時間，資產的回報率也會漸漸接近這水平。投資回報降低，代表資產的投機性越來越強。

同上例子：6%回報的股票，三年後，即使股票價格不升，回報率仍達20%。如果換上買入價是3%回報，只有10%。

 這個時代，正是這些穩定資產的大牛市，如美國債券，房地產等。

香港房地產：

現在香港的房地產回報，只有3%, 扣除折舊及其他成本，實際利率低於2%，供款利率2%, 同時定存有1.5%。這些數字讓房地產投資的回報及風險變得很不吸引。當然，社會還存在著剛性需求去維持購買力，同時供應也相對低的情況下，高房價還會維持一段時間。然而，在可見的將來，隨著利率或其他資產類別的投資吸引力增加，房地產投資資金的退出將房價深度調整，直至房地產的投資變得相對有吸引力。

除非政府有意限制香港土地供應去維持供需失衡，以消化投資資金退出的效應，否則香港房地產現在正處於回報低及風險十分高的時候。

香港的股票市場：

香港的股票市場，2004隨著中資及國企紛紛來港，使之成為了外資投資中國的門戶。

中國有著美麗及多樣化的投資主題，例如高增長，大市場及大潛力等。這個資金港口，港闊水深，很適合低回報的西方國家的基金，以爭取高回報。

2004-2007年，中國企業的增長高，同時國際基金對中國的配置也相對地低。因此，便引發起一場中國Re-rating的世界投資主題。任何跟中國相關的股票及資產，都可獲益。2008-2012至今，中國企業的盈利及規模都大增，競爭加劇，回報率下降，同時國際間的基金在過去提高了中國的比重。因此，現在已很難出現最初高歌猛進的投資環境，而是回歸理性的投資市場了

低增長低回報高風險的投資環境：

現在，任何能夠穩定地提供回報的資產，都在低息的環境下變得越來越昂貴。這種回報降低及風險提高的環境，對投資者而言十分不利。因為，時間所帶來的投資回報，相對其風險變得較少了。

當然，有不少股票都能提供較高的回報率，但他們的經營風險，或多或少也跟整體經濟的狀態有關，難以獨善其身。我們現在全球的虛擬經濟佔整體經濟的比率，是有史以來最高的。過往投資市場化影著實體經濟，現在則是投資市場的變化更大程度地影響著實體經濟。這大大地提高了資本市場的系統性風險，即價格的不確定性及波動性。

零息時代的未來：

房地產及債券現在有著史無前例的低回報及高價格。它們都有著具大的資金儲存容量，所以當趨勢逆轉，便可以造出很大的負財富效應。

通脹至通縮：

印銀紙可以產生通脹，是對的。那什麼產生通縮呢？答案是通脹，因此通脹到一個地步破壞了通脹所需的機制了。年壯的有產中產，是通脹的動力。在印銀紙的時候，他們能夠在資本市場中獲著，同時他們有著巨大的消費需求，這樣印銀紙就能刺激消費了。現在的印銀紙的力度很大，但效果不如預期，就是因為年壯的有產中產，正在減少。相反，資產價格的高昂，正壓抑著年輕中產的消費，因為他們正在不斷節約才有機會置業安居。

印銀紙是不歸路，因為現在它支撐著很大的財富容器。然而，印銀紙也不等於資產價格會一直上升。這是因為，隨著回報率降低，投資的投機性質正在不斷增加。投資零回報的國債去增值及冒險，可能還不如不投資。這就是為何銀行拿到無限量無成本現金也不投資的原因。當無回報資產趨勢逆轉，要不政府支持價格造市，要不就會產生很大的負財富效應。因此，各政府還會不斷出手，直至有一天倒下為止。當然，出手不代表能夠穩定資金的不安呢。有時，上升後就是會下跌，不需要特別的原因。

部署：

在低回報及高系統性風險的投資環境下，即使是回報率吸引的個股，也內含著巨大的投機性質。因此，部署上可以

１選擇具有投資／投機潛力的個股，如穩定增長股或價值股

２嚴設止損及在獲利是分段進入

３進入後提高止損；獲得豐富時，鎖定利潤。

４嚴格監察的潛在損失。不應同一時間有太多的止損及未鎖定的獲利。

結論：

現在，各式各樣的投資方法，還是適用的。然而，要緊記現在的投資環境屬於低回報高風險，以及經濟的虛擬化政治化，屬三十年來最嚴重。平衡的打破所產生巨大的系統性風險，破壞性可以遠勝過去三十年來的任何熊市。未來的Risk on-off周期可以提供大量周期性的機會。我認為有準備地捕捉這些機會，比在高系統性風險下長期持有低回報資產的策略優勝。風險釋出後，將可提供良好的投資機會。