2013年3月14日 星期四

樓市2013見頂, 2015-2017跌30-50%

樓價的走勢, 並不取決於當期的供應及剛性需求, 更取決於現有業主的心態. 即是說除了房屋的流量平衡, 其存量的流動也有巨大的影響. 在升市, 人人都想買樓, 需求會包括投機及剛性需求, 而供應會不夠, 而現有業主也睇升而惜售, 升市就會繼續. 現在, 投機者離場, 投資者卻步, 利息趨升, 令業主群情緒不安, 所產生的沽壓可以十分持久, 直至市場找到新的供需平衡點為止. 如我的理論正確, 香港樓市要持續下跌, 其跌幅是2003年至今升幅的38-62%, 根據中原指數(2003:31, 現在121), 即下跌38%+-10%.

 如果根據牛市的供需思維去思考熊市, 後果將十分慘痛, 雙反亦然, 所以我大膽假設, 大部份人習慣過去十年的升市經驗, 今次樓市跌市將遠超普遍認為的5-10%, 而令進取的投資者慘痛離場, 直至牛市思維破滅, 熊市思維充斥為止, 這需要一段長的時間, 10年的牛市, 調整3-5年不為過. 熊市的流動性將比牛市差很多, 因此換手的Spread將會擴大, 最少要低於市價10%才會容易脫手.

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